Rating agency Fitch expects Romania's ESA public deficit to be 7% of GDP in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027.
Fitch based its projection on Romania's 2025 budget revision and macroeconomic forecast, which predicts muted growth of 0.7% this year, rising to 1.2% in 2026 and 2027.
The public deficit under ESA methodology is expected to decline from 9.3% last year to 8.5% in 2025, followed by a gradual reduction to 7% of GDP in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027.
This projection represents a one-year delay compared to the country's seven-year fiscal consolidation plan.
Romania's deficit has marked a modest 0.3 percentage point improvement from 8.7% in 2024 to 8.4%.
Author's summary: Fitch projects Romania's public deficit to decline to 7% of GDP in 2026.